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The fast-changing global macroeconomic environment, partly stoked by US President Donald Trump鈥檚 aggressive and highly volatile tariff policy, dominated discussions during the leading Western international oil companies鈥� (IOC) recent earnings calls with analysts. Below, we break down how IOC executives are making sense of the widespread uncertainty and positioning their businesses for the months ahead.

• 鈥漊ncertainty鈥� and 鈥渧olatility鈥� loom large, but executives aren鈥檛 becoming fully defensive just yet.

鈥淚t is clear that this uncertainty is weighing on the economic forecast, causing significant volatility and raising the prospects of slower growth,鈥� Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said of the current policy environment, headlined by Trump鈥檚 trade war.

鈥淲e are in turbulent times. The significant increase in tariffs and risk of trade wars creates uncertainty and volatility,鈥� Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan concurred. Woods also pointed to the 鈥渟ignificant downward pressure鈥� facing oil prices and industry margins as the Opec-plus producer group accelerates its unwinding of previous production cuts.

But Western IOC executives broadly followed such sentiments with an emphasis on items they can control 鈥� led by internal cost cutting, strong project delivery and overall capital discipline.

鈥淩ecent macro uncertainty underscores the importance of cost and capital discipline, both core to Chevron鈥檚 leadership,鈥� Chevron CEO Mike Wirth insisted. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne argued the French company could 鈥渨eather the storm鈥� without materially disrupting its existing strategic plans.

The value of the US dollar fell by more than 4.5% against key currencies in April, adding to some oil companies' headaches. That said, these international behemoths are generally accustomed to dealing with foreign exchange fluctuations, compared to some of the more pervasive policy-led macro risks in play.

•  Direct tariff risks are limited for now, but lag effects on the wider economy will need close monitoring.
  

Trump's global tariff unveiling at the start of April was much broader and deeper than many anticipated, and even with some seesawing on tariff rates in the weeks since, cost pressures have already emerged in some areas and raised supply chain issues. 鈥淭he impact is not zero, but I think the impact is manageable," Chevron鈥檚 Wirth told investors.

To continue minimizing these risks, Big Oil is leaning heavily on its historical practice of locking in as many costs as it can in advance via engineering and procurement contracts to provide line of sight before major capex is deployed. That means developments currently in progress are heavily insulated.

鈥淔or the things that are in flight, where we've got work going on, contracted things, we've FID鈥檇 鈥� we're pretty well shielded from the impacts of tariffs,鈥� Exxon鈥檚 Woods said. Total鈥檚 Pouyanne said much the same but conceded that he had paused a 600 megawatt solar power project in the US due to diminished returns; fresh tariffs on Indian-made solar panels planned for the project would push returns from around 12% to below 10%, no longer meeting the company鈥檚 threshold. He added that he saw the US-led trade war as 鈥渁 six-month uncertainty,鈥� predicting 鈥渕uch more clarity on the US investment case by the end of the year.鈥�

Shell CEO Wael Sawan, who broadly described global tariff impacts on his business as 鈥渕anageable鈥� so far, suggested that the impact of tariffs on global energy supply and demand and the real economy will come with a lag. 鈥淚t's unlikely to be within a quarter or two. ... As we look into 2026, that's what we keep our eye on in terms of how it plays out," he told investors May 2.

While not related to tariffs, Equinor has been the recipient of some of the most direct US policy uncertainty impacts, with Trump鈥檚 pulling of key permits for the state-controlled Norwegian firm鈥檚 30%-complete Empire Wind project offshore New York potentially requiring it to pull out for good.

• Maintaining shareholder payouts is proving tough and affects capex and debt.

Dividends are not in question for the time being, but Western IOCs are starting to manage investor expectations on returns via share buybacks. Three 鈥� BP, Chevron and Eni 鈥� have already trimmed buyback rates this year or are preparing to do so.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss called the UK major鈥檚 buyback cut a 鈥渇irst step鈥� but insisted there were no current plans for further cuts. In the US, Chevron cut its share buyback range for the second quarter to $2.5 billion-$3 billion, down from the $3.9 billion it allocated in the first quarter. The change puts the company's full-year buyback program at $11 billion-$13 billion, at the lower end of the $10 billion-$20 billion annual target introduced in 2023.

In a note this week, RBC said the early cuts reduced uncertainty, yet it sees buybacks unchanged 鈥渇or now鈥� at Shell and Total. The bank noted that even after the provisioned cuts to buybacks, 鈥渢he [European IOC] sector's average 2025 distribution yield of 10.5% remains well above its organic free cash yield of 8%.鈥� Yet, RBC added, 鈥渞oom to fund buybacks through debt has shrunk, with average gearing ratios slightly above long-term (20-year) historical levels.鈥�

Net debt was indeed broadly up for the Western IOCs. Total鈥檚 net debt soared to $21 billion in the first quarter, up from $15.4 billion a year ago, on what the company said were one-off and seasonal factors. Total aims to maintain buybacks of $2 billion per quarter 鈥渋n reasonable market conditions,鈥� Pouyanne said. Exxon's net debt-to-capital ratio inched up to 7% in the first quarter but was less than half of Chevron鈥檚 14.4%. Shell leads the European majors with low gearing of 7%, giving it headroom to fulfill its pledge to buy back $3.5 billion of stock by the end of July, as it has done in the past, CFO Sinead Gorman said.

The IOCs鈥� insistence that they are built to navigate uncertain times has generally meant capex implications are limited for the time being, with a few trimmings to offer additional headroom but with no major project implications.

Shell and Equinor reiterated their annual capex budgets of $20 billion-$22 billion and $13 billion (organic), respectively, whereas BP cut its guidance by $500 million to $14.5 billion, and Eni by at least 鈧�500 million ($560 million) to below 鈧�6 billion net. Exxon鈥檚 Woods reminded investors that the supermajor plays the long game and called any investor asking for lower capex and higher cash distributions 鈥渟hortsighted.鈥� Woods, Pouyanne and Shell鈥檚 Gorman all noted that softer share prices, due mainly to lower oil prices, offered a good opportunity to buy their companies鈥� stock back cheaply.

Should the macro environment materially deteriorate, however, more surgical moves to capex might be taken. BP said it retains 鈥渙ptionality鈥� to reduce its capex by a further $2.5 billion if oil and gas prices drop further 鈥� with consequences for its oil and gas growth plans. Chevron says it is ready to cut investments if needed, with almost two-thirds of its capex allocated to short-cycle US shale or projects due to be completed soon. 鈥淚f we needed to bring capital down further ... we certainly could do so," Wirth said.

• Despite the general confidence, the pervasive macro uncertainty led to a notable absence of new FID guidance.

Where Western IOC executives seemed least comfortable to commit was on fresh FIDs. Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz said the Spanish champion is not planning to take any FIDs on new projects until the end of the year due to the US tariff-led uncertainty. 鈥淲e prefer to have all the cards in our hands before playing the game," he said. Also, because the company operates in euros, a weaker US dollar means lower capex for projects in the US, Imaz said.

Exxon鈥檚 Woods said the company will defer investments 鈥渇or projects that have not yet reached FID, if the necessary policy support or market developments are not sustained or do not materialize.鈥� The Exxon CEO nonetheless remains hopeful the company can reach FID on its blue hydrogen and ammonia project in Baytown, Texas, this year. The major signed up its first firm customer for ammonia on May 8 and has numerous preliminary agreements in hand.

Total鈥檚 Pouyanne said the Eni-operated Cronos gas discovery offshore Cyprus, in which Total is a partner, should reach 鈥淔ID by 2026鈥� but was less specific on a timeline for developing his company鈥檚 Venus oil find offshore Namibia. On Mozambique LNG, which has been FID'd but stalled for years, Pouyanne said, "I would say the target is to be able somewhere to relaunch this project by middle of the year."