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  • US-Iran nuclear negotiations are the most promising opening between the two in years. While threatening military action if talks fail, Washington is showing a clear preference for diplomacy. Tehran’s weakened regional position and economy provide incentives to negotiate. A deal would likely include Iranian oil sanctions relief. Tehran can likely increase production quickly, but we see a near-term, limited agreement as more likely, limiting potential upside. Yet, production and exports could rise to 3.8 million b/d and 2 million b/d, respectively, within six months if a deal were reached. However, if talks fail and the US fully returns to maximum pressure, output and exports could fall precipitously.
    Thu, Apr 24, 2025
Discover how sweeping tariffs are disrupting commodities, technology, and energy.