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This year鈥檚 annual UN climate change conference, COP28, underscored the urgency of expediting the green energy transition. To unlock the path to a climate-neutral future, leaders must address the investment barriers inhibiting the flow of capital necessary for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 

Reaching net zero by 2050 demands a radical shift from the current fossil fuel-centric model to a renewable, electrified energy system, necessitating an annual investment of more than $7 trillion. Yet, global commitments fall short, below $2 trillion, compelling governments, financial institutions and investors to collaborate on innovative solutions.

Closing this gap hinges on the mobilization of new cost-reducing policy and finance instruments that can significantly derisk green projects, the identification and dismantling of asymmetrical cost structures between carbon-intensive fossil and clean technologies, and the implementation of fair and just mechanisms to phase down fossil fuel usage. By unlocking these solutions, we can effectively mobilize private investment and pave the way for both economic growth and climate neutrality.

顿别濒辞颈迟迟别鈥檚 report outlines some core policy and financial instruments, grounded in the fundamental financial principle that the riskier the project, the higher the cost of capital. In fact, up to half of total investment spending can be attributed to financing costs arising from the cost of capital. Harnessing these finance instruments is crucial for realizing substantial savings, fostering sustainable economic and environmental outcomes, and ultimately saving $50 trillion by 2050.

Reducing Green Project Risk

Political instability and ambiguous climate policies weigh heavily on the risk associated with any potential investment. This is more acute in developing countries, where about three quarters of green investments should occur. Developing nations often grapple with greater political and regulatory risks, making rendering capital-intensive energy transition initiatives disproportionately expensive. These stricter public budget constraints often hinder or halt energy transition projects.

However, risk can be mitigated with a range of innovative finance and policy instruments. Loss reserves and guarantee mechanisms can play a crucial role in protecting investors if a project meets bottlenecks or faces financial difficulties. Layered repayment structures can increase the bankability 鈥� i.e., alignment of the investors鈥� criteria with the risk-return profile 鈥� of green projects. This is because lower-priority tranches absorb potential losses, making the projects more appealing to commercial investors that gained higher priority. For example, $1 of 鈥� a loan made on more favorable terms than the borrower could obtain in the market 鈥� can mobilize more than $4 commercial capital.

Another important step in reducing risk is through market creation. For example, green hydrogen lacks its own market, meaning that prospective investors do not have reliable prices or quantity benchmarks, lack visibility on technology and delivery specificities, and will have limited predictability as to future demand and supply patterns. Offtake contracts can solve this challenge by enabling buyers to find green products, and sellers to secure buyers for the needed price, thereby reducing green product revenue risk and further solidifying new markets, such as the nascent green hydrogen market. Numerous other policy and financial instruments can help derisk green projects.

Bridging the Cost Gap

Upfront costs can be a major barrier for bridging the cost gap between green and fossil fuel projects. However, these can be reduced through research and development innovation and via investment subsidies helping to offer a short-term benefit and enable long-term cost reductions. In emerging markets where investors can be financially constrained, clean-energy funds can be especially effective at closing the gap.

At the same time, putting a price on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, known generally as carbon pricing, helps internalize the costs to society and incentivize their reduction. Carbon taxes, which set a fixed price on GHG emissions, and cap-and-trade systems, which let participants trade GHG emission permits, both assign a cost to GHG emissions, encouraging participants to invest in cleaner technologies. Importantly, public revenue from carbon pricing can be redirected to climate-related initiatives, including the retraining of workers, ultimately developing a skills pathway to high-value jobs.

The transformation ahead requires a rapid scaling up of investment, particularly in developing countries that have more to gain, and a disproportionate impact on the world鈥檚 overall decarbonization success. These nations not only possess abundant natural resources but also boast a dynamic, eager-to-upskill young workforce. Empowering them with opportunities to contribute to the green transition is a catalyst for not only radical improvements in living standards but also heightened engagement in meaningful work. Enhanced financing in these economies through international mobilization can not only enable economic growth in these regions through clean energy development, but also provide low-cost clean energy commodity imports to developed economies where renewable endowments are often limited.

The probability of decarbonization success equals the bankability of projects, and we now have the analysis, the tools, mechanisms and intent to ensure renewable becomes actionable and sustainable becomes bankable.

Prof. Dr. Bernhard Lorentz is the founding chair of the Deloitte Center for Sustainable Progress and a managing partner at Deloitte Germany. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.