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A resolution of the Ukraine war or prolonged ceasefire 鈥� beyond the current US-led proposal for a 30-day halt to fighting 鈥� could lead European buyers to resume purchases of Russian piped natural gas, but the size and shape of supply contracts will likely look much different than before the war started in 2022. Russia鈥檚 reputation as a reliable and relatively cheap gas supplier has fundamentally changed after more than three years of war. Many buyers will be reluctant to re-enter the term deals for piped gas that were common prewar following allegations of contract breaches by Gazprom, the sole exporter of Russian pipeline gas 鈥� not to mention the EU鈥檚 nonbinding pledge to end Russian energy imports by 2027. Russian gas that does start flowing back to Europe will likely be sold on spot markets to buyers who can swallow the risk 鈥� especially if the price is right. Traders say much trust has been lost since 2022 regarding the stability of piped gas from Gazprom. Many European buyers have sought arbitration to resolve disputes after the state-owned Russian giant cut off contracted supplies. These cases highlight the increased risk perception looming over Russian gas today 鈥� one trader points to the period after Russia invaded Ukraine as one where 鈥渨hole companies went bust due to Gazprom exposure.鈥� Russia was piping around 150 billion cubic meters per year of gas to Europe before 2022, a figure that seems unlikely to be matched anytime soon in any scenario. 鈥淭here's a lot of things that have to happen鈥� before Russian gas flows approach prewar levels, including the resolution of these arbitration cases, Shell鈥檚 executive vice president of LNG, Cederic Cremers, said at International Energy Week in London last month. Fears of any ceasefire being fragile or unenduring may also give pause to potential European buyers. Industry comments suggest piped volumes could rise initially from 19 Bcm/yr to roughly 50 Bcm/yr.