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Fundamentals

Balances: Steep Uncertainty Follows Strong First Quarter

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Barrels,stacked
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From the perspective of oil balances, the start of the year was less grim than anticipated. But that strength is fleeting since it came from weather on the supply side and China on demand. China ramped up exports across the board in the face of the US' aggressive tariffs. Global demand turned out to be 300,000 barrels per day stronger in the first quarter of 2025 than assumed last month. The flipside is that demand for the rest of the year is now highly uncertain and mostly depends upon the stickiness of tariffs that the US has slapped on all nations. Average demand for the year is now penciled in at 103.5 million b/d, down some 130,000 b/d from last month.

Topics:
Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Crude Oil, Oil Forecasts, Oil Trade
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