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Benchmarking: Trade War, Opec Supply Alter Oil’s Outlook

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  • Expectations of economic recession led to an average 220,000 barrel per day downward revision to this year’s oil demand growth outlook among the five forecasters in this survey.
  • Given myriad uncertainties, there is no consensus as to whether demand growth in 2026 will slow or accelerate compared to the current year.
  • The latest market reports have skewed global balances toward a larger surplus for both this year and 2026.

Global oil market outlooks underwent upheaval this month, triggered by Washington’s announcement of aggressive tariffs on Apr. 2 and then, the following day, Opec-plus’ unexpected decision to bump crude production in May by an additional 274,000 b/d to 411,000 b/d. Within days, benchmark oil prices touched four-year lows.

Topics:
Oil Forecasts, Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Oil Inventories, Crude Oil
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