博彩对冲

In the three weeks since US President Donald Trump first unveiled his wide-ranging tariffs, markets have been on a roller coaster. Global benchmark Brent crude has, on net, shed around $9 per barrel since Apr. 2. The tariff turbulence is adding a thick layer of uncertainty to global oil demand forecasts, and supply questions further cloud the price outlook. Analysts across the board have cut their forecasts for economic and oil demand growth, with a near-universal caveat that outlooks could change abruptly. Given a range of potential outcomes for how Trump's tariff push will play out, 博彩对冲 sees a "Quick Walk Back" scenario as the most likely to unfold with a 45% chance. This would see souring economic conditions and domestic pressures force Trump to walk back, soften or indefinitely delay many of the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs and agree multiple bilateral trade deals but keep sectoral and some China tariffs in place. Evidence of this is already materializing, including carveouts for certain sectors. Trump also appeared briefly to soften his tone on China this week, saying that steep 145% import taxes on Chinese goods could "come down substantially," while he spoke optimistically about a potential deal with Beijing. But the risk of escalation remains, and the knock-on effects to oil demand are elevated even in this scenario. In line with this base scenario, 博彩对冲 has downgraded its already conservative demand forecast by around 130,000 barrels per day to 840,000 b/d growth in 2025. Historically, periods of sustained lower oil prices can support demand through inventory refills and growth in developing markets, but recession risks could depress the uplift this time. As of now, 博彩对冲 balances point to a 240,000 b/d oil supply surplus in 2025, up from a small 50,000 b/d surplus seen in February. In the "Quick Walk Back" scenario, Brent would average around $70/bbl, as opposed to the $73/bbl forecast in March.