博彩对冲

Government delegation after government delegation is heading to Washington, making promising noises about buying more US energy 鈥� mainly US LNG 鈥� and other goods. But two weeks after the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on its higher rate 鈥渞eciprocal鈥� tariffs, no quick, clinical deals centered on energy and other purchases have been struck. Reality may be biting, with the US struggling on capacity grounds to hammer out deals and negotiations complicated by expanding and at times unclear US asks, deadlines, and resolve. So far, India has made progress on a 鈥渞oadmap鈥� toward a final deal. Japan has scheduled a second round of talks from Apr. 30 but wants to keep security issues separate from tariffs. Talks with South Korea, where LNG and shipping are in play, kick off on Apr. 24. Others, like Thailand, have seen negotiations delayed, or, like Indonesia and the EU, have held high-level but inconclusive talks. US President Donald Trump's announcement on Tuesday that the US鈥� 145% tariff rate on China will 鈥渃ome down substantially鈥� creates yet more uncertainty.

• India agrees on "roadmap," eyes autumn deal.

US-India talks may provide most clues about how talks and possible deals could unfold 鈥� and on what timeline. US Vice President JD Vance, speaking in India on Tuesday, announced after his talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the two countries had 鈥渙fficially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation鈥� 鈥� or in other words, agreed what to talk about. Vance added: "It sets a roadmap toward a final deal between our nations." As for timing, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Monday that New Delhi hopes to 鈥減ositively conclude鈥� the first part of a trade deal by the autumn, suggesting a lengthy extension of the current 90-day pause. A final deal tipping into 2026 can鈥檛 be ruled out.

In his Apr. 22 remarks, Vance pushed US energy exports, saying India would benefit from buying more, including through lower costs. But India has already offered to waive its modest 2.5% levy on imports of US LNG, LPG and ethane, state-owned Gail India is actively seeking US LNG import and investment deals, and the country鈥檚 imports of US light, sweet crude have also picked up recently. This raises the question of what exactly the US needs to see on energy flows for any trade deal, while at the same time, Trump鈥檚 steel and aluminum tariffs and port fees for Chinese-built ships will likely drive up US LNG costs. There are also limits to how much US crude India can process, given that its refineries run mainly medium, sour grades. India鈥檚 lowest-cost crude supplier over the last few years has been Russia and its discounted barrels.

• Japan is pursuing a 鈥渨in-win鈥� outcome.

Japan鈥檚 top negotiator, Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, went home from a first round of talks, which Trump attended, without a deal. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears to be taking a tough stance, particularly after Trump introduced the 鈥渃ost of military support鈥� to the negotiations: "We should address security issues without linking them to tariffs," Ishiba told parliament, adding that talks 鈥渕ust produce a desirable outcome for both sides.鈥� Ishiba faces upper house elections on Jul. 20, and the government is under domestic pressure not to cave in to Trump鈥檚 demands. Opposition politician Shinji Oguma described the US鈥� approach as extortion: "If you get mugged and put money in their hands, they will come back to mug us."

Energy purchases, steel and automobile tariffs 鈥� and the value of the yen 鈥� are all in the mix. Ishiba is trying hard to preserve a trade deal former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe struck in 2019 with Trump, who assured Abe at the time that the US would not impose tariffs on Japanese cars. On energy, Japan is already a major purchaser of US LNG, with contracts totaling almost 15 million tons per year, although most volumes get resold, and Japanese buyers have signed up for more volumes from Venture Global鈥檚 planned Calcasieu Pass 2 project in Louisiana. But Japanese firms appear more reticent than Taiwanese or South Korean firms about investing in the proposed Alaska LNG project, given its high costs and anticipated post-2030 start-up, after Trump鈥檚 second term will be over.

• Europe is engaging, but it has limits on energy.

European officials have repeatedly made noises about being open to buying more US LNG in a bid to ward off, and now reduce, US tariffs 鈥� echoing the bloc鈥檚 strategy in Trump鈥檚 first term. The differences now are that: Europe already buys a lot of US LNG (in 2024, the US accounted for 45% of Europe鈥檚 LNG imports); pledges alone will not satisfy Trump; and the EU鈥檚 green policy targets, such as on methane, have advanced, creating some regulatory 鈥� and demand 鈥� misalignment with US LNG imports, particularly as the US retreats on methane emissions fees and reporting requirements.

EU purchases are also down to the private sector, although the European Commission, as part of its , proposed in February that the commission engage more directly with 鈥渞eliable鈥� LNG suppliers, with a nod to supporting investments in LNG export infrastructure, and pursue 鈥渄emand aggregation for EU companies entering into tolling contracts at LNG plants worldwide.鈥�

Skeptics pointed to a number of problems with the proposal, which has not led to any deals, including the difficulty of justifying public investment in LNG given demand uncertainty. Meanwhile, additional market-driven US LNG contracts are emerging, with Germany鈥檚 Uniper and SEFE Securing Energy for Europe recently signing up for new volumes. But market sources see European demand as constrained by existing large contracts inked in 2022-23. Europe鈥檚 renewables rollout is also eating into gas demand.

• China isn't sitting still.

Beijing had already halted US LNG imports, but at stake too are Chinese deals for future offtake of US LNG, with the trade war also spurring more Chinese interest in Russian LNG and pipeline gas, even if as a bargaining chip. 鈥淲hy would China want to be dependent on energy for supply lines going to a country as unreliable and erratic and hostile as the United States? The answer is, it wouldn鈥檛 鈥� So there is going to be a pivot to various other sources,鈥� argued former US diplomat Chas Freeman.

In response to Trump鈥檚 apparent new tariff flexibility, Beijing has said, "The door for talks is wide open." Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo鈥檃n is in Washington to attend this week鈥檚 World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring meetings. No US meeting would signal no progress 鈥渢owards even discussions to talk about an off-ramp,鈥� US-based China expert Bill Bishop said in his Substack newsletter this week. Beijing has meanwhile warned countries against striking any deals at the expense of its interests.