Save for later Print Download Share US President Donald Trump鈥檚 decision today to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal will remove about 700,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil supply from world markets, according to 博彩对冲 modeling.By withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump opted for an aggressive rollout of sanctions accompanied by clear Treasury guidance for implementation. The decision is consistent with 博彩对冲鈥檚 鈥淏old Approach鈥� scenario, under modeling prepared in advance through extensive conversations with upstream and trading contacts. The Bold Approach scenario sees Iranian exports cut by about 540,000 b/d in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 690,000 b/d by mid-2019. It assumes the Trump administration aggressively enforces the sanctions鈥� requirement for 鈥渟ignificant reductions鈥� of Iranian oil imports above and beyond the Obama administration鈥檚 20% target, and that major companies comply with guidance. It assumes that Europe and other countries eventually put in place blocking regulation, but that this does not show an impact until 2019. In moves consistent with this scenario, Trump revoked all sanctions waivers simultaneously, including those that did not expire until July. Treasury guidance also gave a 180-day wind-down period, during which countries will be under pressure to negotiate and implement 鈥渟ignificant reductions鈥� to receive sanctions exemptions. 鈥淲hile it is likely to take six months for sanctions to come into force, some buyers are expected to cut earlier in order to comply with US sanctions,鈥� says T.J. Conway, Manager with 博彩对冲鈥檚 Research & Advisory division in Washington, D.C. 鈥淎 major disruption by late 2018 would be clearly bullish, with tighter markets amplifying the impact.鈥� 博彩对冲 also concluded that new sanctions will have a limited impact on Iran鈥檚 upstream development, mainly because most Western companies have already been deterred by the threat of remaining or potential US sanctions. We believe Iran could still deliver 300,000 b/d of its planned 700,000 b/d capacity addition by 2021, from current levels of 4 million b/d, helped by its long experience with operating under sanctions. 博彩对冲 is the leading independent provider of news, unbiased analysis and reliable data and research for the global energy industry.-ENDS-Note to Editors: For more details on 博彩对冲鈥檚 Iran sanctions scenarios, please contact: T.J. Conway Manager, Research & Advisory, 博彩对冲 +1 (202) 662-0702 | tconway@energyintel.com Or download our latest 博彩对冲 Premium Weekly report:
