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Climate Policy Post-COP28: Momentum vs. Headwinds

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Although the outcome of COP28 was far from perfect, it’s generally seen as having lent momentum to the energy transition. The EU got fossil fuel language in the text, sending a clear signal, in its view, on the direction of travel. This is a symbolic win certainly but has real implications too, with some banks are already starting to change tack. Producer countries got plenty of wiggle room too, with recognition of an implicit role for natural gas and an explicit one for technologies like carbon capture. But ultimately the real success of the “UAE Consensus” — as the deal’s been named — will depend on steps individual countries, and companies, now take on implementation, with the deal reached there also putting the onus on developed countries take the lead in moving away from fossil fuels. Momentum coming out of COP may help by anchoring such national policy measures in a wider global endeavor. But policymakers’ efforts also face potential political headwinds — with a swath of elections in the coming year, and managing transition costs also key.

Topics:
COP28, Low-Carbon Policy, Policy and Regulation
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