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The Big Picture

US Grand Bargain Confronts Mideast Realities

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  • The US and Saudi Arabia are edging closer to security deal, but an ironclad treaty likely hinges on a longshot Israel-Saudi normalization deal and progress on the Palestinian issue.

  • Despite myriad obstacles, Washington is pressing ahead on both fronts as part of a plan for a post-Gaza war Mideast security architecture.

  • Absent Israel-Saudi normalization, some argue the US and the kingdom should pursue a “lite” version of a deal that punts integration of Israel to a later date.

The Biden administration is spending considerable diplomatic capital polishing plans for a US-Saudi security pact, even as a parallel Israel-Saudi normalization deal remains tied to the Palestinian issue. The longshot effort for a three-way deal dusts off a key US goal from 2023 aimed at creating a new Middle East security architecture that appeared to bank on sidelining the notion of a Palestinian state. The pursuit of that grand bargain was torpedoed by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and subsequent Israeli assault on Gaza, which catapulted the Palestinian question to the forefront — dramatically complicating the already challenging outlook for any trilateral deal. Further adding to difficulties is an increasingly fractious US-Israel relationship, with US President Joe Biden saying Wednesday he would withhold US weapons supplies if Israel goes ahead with its planned Rafah offensive.

Topics:
Military Conflict, Opec/Opec-Plus, Security Risk , Elections
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