博彩对冲

A fresh US-Saudi push to cooperate on developing a nuclear program in the kingdom comes amid mounting geopolitical turbulence in the region. The commitment to seal a deal, made during US Energy Secretary Chris Wright鈥檚 visit to the kingdom this month, marks the most significant progress on the issue since the Gaza war began in 2023. It coincides with US President Donald Trump鈥檚 renewed efforts to curb Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions 鈥� whether through diplomacy or military means. But the US-Saudi path forward remains uncertain, too. Washington has historically insisted that, in any civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, the kingdom forgoes uranium enrichment and reprocessing, capabilities with potential military uses, and Riyadh rejects these conditions, complicating prospects for a breakthrough.

Saudi Arabia, the Arab world鈥檚 largest economy, is aggressively pursuing economic diversification under its Vision 2030 program, which includes multibillion-dollar "gigaprojects" aimed at attracting foreign investment and positioning the kingdom as a regional hub for sports, entertainment and tourism. Shifting to natural gas and renewables to meet all its domestic power needs by 2030 is a key goal that would end reliance on crude for electricity, cut emissions and free up more oil for export.

However, while solar energy is cheap, it cannot fully replace fossil fuels for baseload power. This limitation underpins Riyadh鈥檚 push for a civilian nuclear program, which would provide reliable energy to meet rising demand and support net-zero goals by 2060 while also serving as a geopolitical counterweight to Iran鈥檚 advanced nuclear capabilities.

鈥淭he ambition is to have a civilian nuclear program, which would allow them to sell more oil effectively 鈥� and it would also help them with other ambitions, such as having large server farms and AI [artificial intelligence] data centers that would require a lot of energy,鈥� said Bernard Haykel, professor of Near East Studies at Princeton University, during the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.

Saudi Arabia launched a tender in 2022 for its first large-scale nuclear plant, Duwaiheen, targeting 2.8 gigawatts. While the bid deadline has been repeatedly delayed, international interest remains high, with reported offers from China National Nuclear Corp., Korea鈥檚 Kepco, France鈥檚 EDF and Russia鈥檚 Rosatom.

US Role?

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought access to US nuclear technology as part of broader talks with Washington on normalizing ties with Israel alongside other demands, including security guarantees. Those broader talks have been on hold since the Gaza war erupted. Riyadh is pushing for US nuclear involvement not only for its technical expertise but for the strategic support it implies 鈥� support that allies like South Korea or France can鈥檛 offer 鈥� though the scope of the partnership remains uncertain, says Simon Henderson with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

US companies can only participate in building Saudi nuclear plants if Riyadh signs a so-called 123 agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation 鈥� so far, a key obstacle. Secretary Wright reiterated this condition during his visit to Riyadh earlier this month, emphasizing that the deal must meet both nations鈥� objectives. A standard 123 agreement, while not prohibiting uranium enrichment and reprocessing, includes stringent nonproliferation criteria that partner countries must commit to. These requirements, outlined in Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, ensure that all shared nuclear material, equipment or technology are used solely for peaceful purposes and remain under International Atomic Energy Agency oversight. Some 123 agreements, like the so-called 鈥済old standard鈥� US-United Arab Emirates pact, include a partner nation's commitment to completely forgo uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing. The Emirates鈥� Barakah plant began commercial operations in September 2024 and now supplies up to 25% of the UAE's electricity.

But Saudi Arabia wants to develop a full nuclear fuel cycle, including enrichment. The kingdom sees this as essential for energy independence, leveraging domestic uranium and asserting sovereignty. It also views Iran鈥檚 nuclear advances as a major threat. In 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told CBS that while Saudi Arabia does not seek a nuclear weapon, if Iran developed one, "We will follow suit as soon as possible.鈥�

Delaying Normalization

Although the US aims to secure both a nuclear deal with Riyadh and normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel to contain Iran and promote regional stability, a bilateral nuclear agreement with the kingdom could end up delaying its formalization of diplomatic ties with the Jewish state. A bilateral deal with the US reduces 鈥淪audi reliance on Israeli-aligned US diplomacy, especially amid widespread domestic opposition to normalization and unresolved tensions over Gaza,鈥� says energy strategist Umud Shokri at George Mason University.

Since the start of the Gaza war in 2023, Riyadh has pulled back from engaging with Israel and toughened its stance, saying that normalization cannot proceed without recognizing a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The nuclear deal could also strengthen Riyadh鈥檚 bargaining position, allowing it to extract more concessions from Washington 鈥� such as advanced weaponry and formal security guarantees 鈥� before committing to normalization, which has become politically riskier for the crown prince, Shokri says. 鈥淢oreover, the broader regional landscape is shifting. Saudi Arabia鈥檚 cautious rapprochement with Iran, combined with deeper ties to China and emerging engagement with Brics, signals Riyadh鈥檚 strategy of diversifying partnerships,鈥� he adds.

US-Iran Talks

The US talks with Saudi Arabia over the nuclear program come as Washington has also resumed dialogue with Iran aimed at easing tensions over Tehran鈥檚 nuclear advancements. This month, Iran and the US held two rounds of indirect talks in Muscat and Rome, mediated by Oman, with a third round in Muscat on Apr. 26. They mark the highest-level Iran-US negotiations since the 2015 nuclear deal, which lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear activities.

Under the deal, Iran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment to a level of 3.67% for a period of 15 years. Trump's decision to pull out of it in 2018 has resulted in Iran dramatically advancing its nuclear program, enriching uranium to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels. Whether Trump has the will or the ability to negotiate a new nuclear deal remains to be seen. But if the US does once again permit Iran to continue enriching uranium at the lower level, which is a red line for Tehran, it will be much harder for Washington to argue against Riyadh doing the same.

John Benny is a reporter with 博彩对冲 focused on the Mideast Gulf. Phil Chaffee is the editor of Nuclear Intelligence Weekly. A version of this article originally appeared in Energy Compass.