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Benchmarking: Demand Growth Improves, But New Supply Outpaces

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  • Oil consumption will edge up this year at a slightly higher pace than it did in 2024, according to a survey of the main forecasts.
  • Forecasts for China’s demand growth in 2025 have been tempered after sizable downward revisions in 2024.
  • Volumes of new liquids supplies are poised to outstrip growth in demand, according to consensus, indicating a net gain for inventories.

If the first weeks are any guide, oil markets will be kept on their toes in 2025. Geopolitical risk, particularly in the form of sanctioned oil and trade tariffs, is dominating the narrative, sparking a $10 rise in benchmark prices by midmonth. Prices have since retreated, but the risks remain as the new White House administration rolls out its economic and foreign policies.

Topics:
Oil Forecasts, Crude Oil, Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Opec-Plus Supply, Non-Opec Supply
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