The Sun photo/Shutterstock Save for later Print Download Share General market sentiment is weakening amid an uncertain macro outlook and expectations of rising supply. But even against that backdrop, weak February data looks like an outlier. Preliminary data shows a supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day, but that glut is the result of unexpectedly robust supply, especially from Opec-plus, and low demand. In current balances, February is the month in 2025 with the highest surplus, to be followed by a tightening market and a deficit starting in June. The surplus of the first half cancels out the shortfall in the second. While this seasonal trend has been firming up in recent years, actual volumes can heavily fluctuate as the US is shaking up both global trade and security alliances.
