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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party returned to power in elections this week, pledging to turn the oil-rich country into an 鈥渆nergy superpower鈥� 鈥� but it鈥檚 unclear what this means in practice and to what extent he has fossil fuel or low-carbon energies in mind. The former central banker and political newcomer emerged as Canadians鈥� preferred candidate to stand up to US President Donald Trump amid broad tariff threats and unwelcome invitations for Canada to become America鈥檚 "51st state." Carney has pledged to diversify Canada鈥檚 energy trade, while indicating to oil and gas producers in western Canada that new pipelines and expanded LNG exports could be in the national interest. But many are skeptical that such projects can be built near term, or that Carney will meaningfully change tack from past Liberal policies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had carved out a seemingly unassailable lead in the election campaign by tapping into voter disaffection on inflation, housing and other issues, using the carbon tax implemented under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as a rallying cry. Trump鈥檚 tariffs and territorial threats, however, led to a dramatic reversal 鈥� helped by Trudeau鈥檚 resignation, new Prime Minister Carney鈥檚 prompt removal of the consumer-facing part of the carbon tax and his strong financial and economic track record. More fundamentally, Trump鈥檚 moves exposed Canada鈥檚 overwhelming dependence on the US market, which accounts for about 70% of its 4 million barrels per day of oil production and roughly half of its 19.8 billion cubic feet per day of gas output.

Canada has made some progress in diversifying oil and gas sales, but export projects took years to navigate domestic challenges and still account for a minority of sales. In polls, more Canadians now seem ready to embrace new oil and gas infrastructure, but this will depend on the willingness of the private sector to invest large amounts of time and capital, the government鈥檚 priorities and enduring opposition to multiprovince pipelines. The C$34 billion (US$24.6 billion), 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion, which pipes crude to an export terminal in British Columbia, started flowing in mid-2024 and has opened new markets in Asia 鈥� but was only completed with extensive financial support from Trudeau鈥檚 Liberal government. So far, roughly 50% of Trans Mountain鈥檚 expanded exports have gone to Asia; China imported a record 304,000 b/d from Canada this March, a 67% year-on-year increase, according to official Chinese data. LNG Canada, the country鈥檚 first LNG export project, will start up soon, again targeting Asia. Other LNG projects are also showing momentum. Multiple polls have found that up to three in four Canadians now support construction of a pipeline that would carry crude from Alberta to refineries in the country鈥檚 east 鈥� but permitting complexity and regulatory costs still represent major concerns for oil and gas advocates. Critics note that by the time a new pipeline is built, global demand for crude may have already peaked. But Canada鈥檚 crude resource is so big that the country can remain a global supplier as reserves in other jurisdictions decline, says Eric Nuttall of Toronto-based investment firm Ninepoint. 鈥淓ven in an environment where demand is falling, there's still going to be a call on Canadian crude oil for many years to come,鈥� he says.

The oil sector is expressing cautious optimism that it can work amicably with the new Liberal government. But industry has a laundry list of policies that it says must be removed or revamped for companies to invest in major projects. Carney has offered few specifics on his energy priorities 鈥� his stated goal to make Canada an 鈥渆nergy superpower鈥� comprises 鈥渂oth clean and conventional energy.鈥� One key question is which way Carney, with the election behind him, will lean as he seeks to develop an economy less dependent on the US. His superpower focused mainly on critical minerals, clean energy and electricity, with only passing references to 鈥渃onventional鈥� energy. Certainly, Carney has a strong set of climate credentials, previously working as UN special envoy for climate action and finance and helping to create the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, for example. He says he does not intend to remove the carbon tax on industrial emitters, to the chagrin of oil advocates. A proposed federal emissions cap that Carney supports will effectively serve as a 鈥減roduction cap鈥� on oil and gas, opponents say. Carney also says he has no plans to repeal the controversial Bill C-69, the Impact Assessment Act, which requires projects to take a variety of environmental and social factors into consideration before construction starts. Critics have branded the law as the 鈥淣o More Pipelines Act鈥� because of the cost and time it adds to projects. Carney has, however, proposed initiatives to 鈥渒ick-start the clean energy supply chain鈥� by investing in critical minerals, fast-tracking energy projects of 鈥渘ational interest鈥� and building an east-west electricity grid. He also wants to streamline reviews so federal permits for major projects can be issued within two years instead of five.