博彩对冲

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office in March and secured a full term in a snap election at the end of April, is expected to dial down his predecessor's climate policy by a few notches but not change the overall direction toward decarbonization. Ahead of Canada鈥檚 recent national election, which saw Carney鈥檚 Liberal Party retain its power in Ottawa, the conversation on climate and emissions policy took a noticeable turn to the middle ground, with Carney having taken a lighter tenor compared to the more hawkish climate policies of his predecessor, former Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau. Then, in that vein, one of Carney's earliest moves involved eliminating the country鈥檚 consumer-facing carbon pricing mechanism. First implemented in 2019, the extremely unpopular policy was slated to hit $170 per ton by 2030, and Carney said getting rid of it was necessary to alleviate financial household burdens.

Tax Tweaks

Carney is also planning to make 鈥渢weaks鈥� to the country鈥檚 remaining tax on industrial emitters, which includes oil and gas producers. His plan talks about introducing more targeted incentives and complementary investments to maintain Canada鈥檚 goal for net-zero emissions by 2050 鈥� essentially moving toward more "carrots" rather than "sticks."

Details have been somewhat sparse. The plan would presumably maintain the framework for industrial emitters, which currently is set to $65/ton of CO2, slated to hit $170 by 2030, while potentially exploring subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs) and efficiency upgrades. Carney also pledged to dramatically shorten environmental reviews for large oil and gas projects and help make Canada an 鈥渆nergy superpower." That language parallels with US President Donald Trump's pro-fossil fuel energy dominance agenda and newly re-elected Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's push to make his country a "renewable energy powerhouse" 鈥� except Carney seems to favor more of an all-of-the-above strategy.

Continuity vs. Change

But despite the optics suggesting this 鈥渁ll of the above鈥� bent, some policy watchers say Carney's broader climate policy could dovetail with Trudeau's more than expected. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it shifts the state of play that much,鈥� said Monica Gattinger, chair of the Positive Energy program at the University of Ottawa. 鈥淭o me, this is a story of continuity rather than change.鈥�

For example, Carney backs keeping intact the proposed emissions cap, which would require oil and gas producers to slash emissions from their operations by one-third. The proposal is still in the regulatory development stage, Gattinger noted, but Carney has pushed back on the criticism from the oil and gas sector that it is tantamount to a production cap.

Carrots and Sticks

Trudeau鈥檚 climate agenda fell under criticism of being more stick-heavy, while Carney has talked openly of more subsidies for things like EVs and other possible carrots. Chris Severson-Baker, executive director for the Pembina Institute, said expanding renewable electricity incentives and generation is key to attracting investment. 鈥淢odernizing our electricity grid, expanding renewables and other clean energy sources, and shifting our energy demand to electricity will drive Canada's next wave of jobs in clean transportation and low-carbon buildings,鈥� he argued.

But there are sticks to be found in Carney鈥檚 policy plans as well. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a mix, but there are an increasing number of sticks鈥� that could be used at the federal level, Gattinger said. Carney has also talked about setting a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) to establish tariffs on imports from countries with weaker carbon rules. The details of Carney鈥檚 platform actually include a number of measures that would mean 鈥渧ery big changes in policy,鈥� including the CBAM, Gattinger noted.

Tariff Tensions

A leading priority for Carney will be the Canadian response to US tariffs, with politicians in Ottawa and provinces like Alberta suggesting a reshuffling to cut exports to the US, including for crude oil and other energy-related products. Carney, who met with Trump Tuesday in Washington, acknowledged an uphill battle with Trump on the tariffs, saying 鈥淭his will take some time and some discussions. And that's why we're here, to have those discussions."