博彩对冲

Oil bulls on Monday applauded the weekend鈥檚 announcement that the US and China had agreed to temporarily lower their respective tariffs on each other's goods 鈥� even if ample uncertainty and fundamental headwinds remain.

Per the 90-day agreement between the world's two largest economies, the US will lower its tariffs on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, comprised of a 10% baseline tariff and a 20% tariff related to fentanyl and related chemicals produced in China. China's 鈥渞etaliatory鈥� 125% tariffs on US goods will be lowered to 10%.

Beijing also announced that it will remove 鈥渘on-tariff countermeasures鈥� imposed since Apr. 2, but did not specify whether the recent restrictions on rare earth and critical mineral exports that had worried Washington would be included.

The news helped drive front-month Brent crude to session highs of $66.40 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $63.61/bbl before those gains were pared back.

In London, Brent crude for July loading settled $1.05 higher at $64.96/bbl, while June WTI on Nymex closed up 93垄 at $61.95/bbl.

Nymex June gasoline rose by 2.47垄 to settle at $2.1331 per gallon, while the heating oil contract 鈥� a proxy for diesel 鈥� surged 4.47垄 higher to end the session at $2.1111/gallon.

Market players directly attributed Monday's price moves to the tariff news, but warned that considerable supply and demand turbulence and uncertainty over US trade policy remain.

鈥淪o far, it is an instinctive reaction from market players who either cover short positions or decided that the ostensible improvement in macroeconomic conditions entails building up length [in crude]," said Tamas Varga of London-based brokerage PVM Oil.

Financial markets had been betting heavily on lower crude prices, with data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showing that speculators added 19,095 short positions in the week ended May 6 for WTI futures and options combined. Net length in WTI stood at 128,575 positions for the period 鈥� not as low as recently seen, but still below normal.

Varga added that the market could be anticipating more consumption growth in the US and China due to lower tariffs, a sentiment that other analysts echoed.

鈥淚 think a large part of the rally is just a function of the market pricing in higher demand because of lower tariffs," said Fawad Razaqzada of New York-based financial services firm StoneX. "So it is the removal of a bearish factor driving prices higher, which could be a factor for a while yet as the market finds a new equilibrium."

Caution Advised

As headline crude and commodity prices rally, however, market players said the market should tread with caution.

鈥淓conomically, this step-back in tariffs is not a structural fix or a comprehensive deal,鈥� said Ahmad Assiri of Australian brokerage Pepperstone, adding that much depends on what happens next. 鈥淢arkets read this as a sign that progress is possible 鈥� not guaranteed, and not permanent, but at least it鈥檚 a step forward.鈥�

In Washington, several former US Trade Representatives at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Monday broadly applauded the positive steps seen this weekend but agreed that the path ahead would be complicated, difficult and uncertain.

鈥淭he challenge is the continued uncertainty around where we're going,鈥� said Michael Froman, a former US Trade Representative who is now the president of the Council of Foreign Relations. He mentioned not only the trajectory of US-China talks but also continued uncertainty around business decisions and supply chains that could continue to weigh on investment decisions.

The oil market鈥檚 caution is visible in the Brent forward price curve.

While headline prices jumped, Brent鈥檚 forward curve has shifted more subtly, putting prices into a backwardated price structure through December 鈥� meaning prompt contracts trade at a premium to later-dated deliveries. That's a change from last week, when the reverse structure 鈥� contango 鈥� took hold in October.

Backwardation tends to signal a tight market, while contango suggests the opposite.

That said, the newfound backwardation is relatively slight. July Brent is trading about $1.30 above January 2026 and is still priced some $3 below the back end of the curve.

Hurdles Ahead

Oil also still faces significant structural headwinds, market players noted.

Global supply is set to rise in the coming months, with the Opec-plus coalition accelerating the unwinding of its production cuts in both May and June. Non Opec-plus supply will also continue rising, according to the US Energy Information Administration, albeit at a slower pace.

鈥淭he underlying issue of an oversupplied market is what will ultimately determine oil prices,鈥� Razqzada said.

Worries about oil demand also persist.

"[Even if] these temporary [tariff relief] measures are made permanent, US consumer prices would still edge higher, and economic growth would suffer,鈥� Varga warned. 鈥淚t seems certain that the trade barriers will be higher than before the start of the second Trump administration; therefore, they will create economic headwinds.鈥�

The US' effective tariff rate on Chinese goods will remain higher than 30% for the prevailing 鈥減ause.鈥� For example, duties imposed prior to Trump鈥檚 Apr. 2 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� unveiling, as well as sectoral tariffs on solar panels, electric vehicles, steel and aluminum, will remain in place.

A number of measures coming out of the Geneva, Switzerland, talks were also vague and will require further negotiation over the 90-day period, which could be extended.

During an interview with CNBC on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China were not seeking a 鈥済eneralized decoupling鈥� but instead 鈥渁 decoupling for strategic necessities鈥� to ensure 鈥渞esilient supply chains.鈥�

Energy Uplift?

Speaking on Sunday in Geneva, Bessent said that as trade negotiations proceed, 鈥渢here will also be the possibility of purchase agreements to pull what is our largest bilateral trade deficit into balance.鈥�

As was the case during Trump鈥檚 first-term trade war with China, such agreements could facilitate an increase in Chinese purchases of US energy products, which have fallen off a cliff since the start of the year as the latest trade war escalated.

Lowered tariffs are likely to have the greatest impact on US exports of propane and ethane, with China taking 20% and 50%, respectively, of US shipments.

Data from tanker tracking firm Kpler shows that US LPG (propane and butane) exports to China fell from almost 534,000 barrels per day in April 2024 to roughly 250,000 b/d this April. Ethane shipments have remained more stable given the near-exclusive dependency on US volumes by some Chinese petrochemical firms.

By contrast, China is generally not a major consumer of US crude. Flows peaked at 481,000 b/d in 2020 but averaged roughly 149,000 in February, the last full month for which government data exists.

China has yet to take a single cargo of US LNG since mid-February, after having previously been responsible for 5% of US exports.