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After a year in which energy security and affordability have been the main political priorities, COP28, which is due to start on Nov. 30 in Dubai, offers a welcome opportunity to refocus the world on the challenges of climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Given the location of COP in the United Arab Emirates, a large oil-producing country, there will be a particular focus on the role of hydrocarbons. It will be important to see if any middle ground can be found between environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) who are advocating for a rapid phase out of oil and gas and the self-styled 鈥渆nergy realists鈥� who see hydrocarbons as an inevitable part of the medium future, albeit in an abated form.

The key subtext of the negotiations will be the findings of the "global stocktake," the first five-yearly review of the performance of the 193 COP countries against their climate targets, set in Paris at COP21. From the synthesis report published in September we already know the answer 鈥� the world is heading for 2.4掳-2.6掳C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century under current policies, well above its 1.5掳C goal. Furthermore, the target of reducing CO2 emissions by 43% by 2030 to be on track for net-zero by 2050 looks unachievable as the trend continues to be up, not down. The political reaction to this report will be at the heart of the COP discussions, and many countries, as well as the COP President-Designate Sultan al-Jaber, are already calling for bolder ambitions to phase out fossil fuels completely and accelerate the take-up of renewables.

Fossil Fuel Debate

However, there are a number of critical issues related to the implementation of these ambitions. The first is the speed at which the transition away from oil, gas and coal can really take place. Al-Jaber has that 鈥渨e cannot simply unplug the energy system of today 鈥� and we must not sacrifice economic development and a just energy transition.鈥� Delegates in agreement with this view will argue that developing countries should be given the chance to utilize their indigenous hydrocarbon resources and that the impacts of oil and gas should be abated using carbon capture technologies.

On the opposite side of the argument, environmental NGOs will point to the need for rapid phase out of all fossil fuel production and consumption, and will almost certainly point to al-Jaber鈥檚 role as CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. as being behind his more oil- and gas-friendly views. This debate is likely to rage throughout the COP negotiations, but the overall sense is that the final statement from the conference will include a commitment to the phase-out of all unabated fuels.

Financing Challenges

Equally, perhaps more, important though will be the debate about financing for the developing world. This will take a number of forms. Center stage will probably go to the negotiations on the loss and damage fund, which was established at COP27 and now needs to be made to work. Detailed have been going on over the past 12 months in order to avoid the fund becoming, as one delegate has put it, 鈥渁n empty bank account,鈥� and as we enter COP28 a number of key questions remain 鈥� who will be paying into the fund, how much, in what form and who is eligible to take money out? Without satisfactory answers to these questions, it is possible that countries from the Global South could just walk away from the negotiating table altogether.

Other vital financing issues concern funding for mitigation and adaptation. Developed countries have yet to fulfil their 2009 pledge to provide $100 billion per year for developing countries by 2020, the majority of which will be spent on provision of zero-carbon energy. Although that figure may be reached by COP28, as much as $1 trillion/yr is to be needed by 2030, and so negotiations must now begin for a new commitment starting from 2025. Furthermore, money is also needed for adaptation in order to fund projects to reduce vulnerability to climate change in the developing world. A level of $40 billion/yr was agreed at COP26, but this will need to be at least quadrupled by 2030, adding to the pressure on developed countries to increase funding . Finally, the roles of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will also come under scrutiny, as both have been accused of failing to invest adequately in the energy transition in the developing world.

Some success will hopefully be celebrated, though, in the progress of the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) that are emerging as a new multilateral source of funding for specific countries. South Africa has led the way, with $8.5 billion provided by the EU, the US and a number of European countries to support the shift from coal to renewables in the power sector. Indonesia has received funding of $20 billion under a similar scheme, and it is thought that India, Vietnam and Senegal may also announce JETPs at COP28.

Other Key Themes

Beyond finance, the future of carbon markets will also be a key theme. It is hoped that the detailed rules for actioning Article 6, which covers the working of voluntary carbon markets, will be agreed, having been rolled over from COP27, and it is critical that key rules on transparency, measurement and verification are put into operation after a year in which prices have fallen sharply and market confidence has been hit by a number of . Re-establishing credibility will be a key goal of COP28. Meanwhile, there will also be debate about the future of carbon allowance markets, especially as the EU is due to introduce its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism by 2026, which has caused controversy in a number of developing countries.

Another key topic will be methane emissions, which has become something of a bellweather for oil and gas industry commitment to decarbonization. Al-Jaber has called on the industry to affirm its to zero emissions and an end to routine flaring by 2030, with 20 companies already signed up. More than 150 countries have also the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030, and further announcements are expected at COP28.

Geopolitical Context

One final critical issue is whether all these topics, and indeed the whole COP process, can grab the attention of global politicians amid the current geopolitical turmoil. The Israel-Gaza conflict is obviously a distraction within the region, while Russia has stated that it will not support any language encouraging a phase out of fossil fuels and may find support from countries that are sympathetic, or at least neutral, towards its invasion of Ukraine.

However, the key dynamic will center around the relationship between the US and China. If John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, the leaders of their countries鈥� COP delegations, are given the authority by their respective presidents to conduct active negotiations, then the sight of the world鈥檚 two largest economies, and largest CO2 emitters, taking the climate negotiations seriously could well inspire others to action, as it did at COP26 and COP27. The signs from the recent meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi in San Francisco appear relatively positive, but it will be critical that this is reflected in the discussions in Dubai if COP28 is to be a success.

James Henderson is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and an Honorary Professor at Warwick University. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.