rawf8/Shutterstock Save for later Print Download Share Hopes that China's demand for oil would accelerate in 2025 grew dimmer this week as the country's trade war with the US quickly escalated. Forecasters had been optimistic that new stimulus measures from Beijing would spur greater economic growth in China this year after a down year in 2024. But government stimulus now looks unlikely to do much to goose oil demand after China slapped an 84% tariff on US imports in retaliation against levies from the US, which responded with its own new 125% tariff on Chinese imports. While it is too early to quantify the standoff's broader economic impacts, China is now facing more expensive imports of US liquids and more limited access to its largest export market. "The US and China are pushing the trade war to the next level," says trader Gunvor鈥檚 head of research for Asia-Pacific, Sri Paravaikkarasu. The downside for Asia's oil demand from the US tariffs could be "around 300,000 barrels per day this year ... the bulk of it would be China," she added. In March, prior to the latest tariff salvos and after the US had already raised import taxes on all Chinese goods by 20% and Beijing responded with its own targeted fees, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Opec forecast 2025 Chinese oil demand to grow by 230,000 and 310,000 b/d, respectively, faster than their respective 2024 growth estimates of 150,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d. Forecasters say they are still assessing the latest tariffs' impacts.
