博彩对冲

The global deepwater sector is looking buoyant. With more spending from international oil companies (IOCs) now dedicated to upstream programs and renewed emphasis on the importance of offshore fields to provide oil and gas supply growth and stem production declines, spirits were high at this year's Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston. The event showcased an offshore sector that continues to evolve with the implementation of new technologies and refined strategies for economic and repeatable resource development. Lower commodity prices, cost inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty still weigh on project planning, but the outlook for the offshore sector looks increasingly optimistic. Offshore production is already on the rise, set to hit an all-time high of 50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day globally this year, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. 鈥淲e have never produced as much, and it鈥檚 going to grow further, to 55 million [boe/d] by 2031," Rystad CEO Jarand Rystad told an OTC panel. IOCs are redoubling exploration efforts to find new advantaged barrels. TotalEnergies is targeting an annual $1 billion spend on exploration and appraisal drilling, with 15-20 exploration wells per year planned. Only 35% of that budget is going to mature plays, with 50% directed toward emerging plays and 15% to frontier. Shell is planning to drill about 20 exploration wells per year in 2025 and 2026, of which about half are near-field, and the rest are emerging and frontier targets. BP also plans to drill more in the coming years, with some 40 exploration wells on tap through 2027. Exxon Mobil's head of Guyana, Alistair Routledge, said he does not see material short-term impacts from today's commodity prices, noting the "very competitive" sub-$35 per barrel break-even costs for the supermajor's Guyana projects.

Technology has been key to unlocking new offshore resources. This is especially true in the US Gulf of Mexico, a region that keeps drawing interest despite multiple cycles predicting its decline. Chevron's Anchor project proved the ability to produce from challenging ultra-high-pressure reservoirs, and now the next batch of "20k" fields are coming on line or are in development. Artificial intelligence and advanced data processing have also uncovered new volumes that may have been inaccessible in the past. 鈥淵ou can reprocess legacy seismic with today鈥檚 algorithms, and this is just starting. Operators believe there is a lot more oil that can be extracted from old-style plays than previously thought," one senior industry source told 博彩对冲. Sam Fowler, a subsea facilities engineering manager for Occidental Petroleum, said that by "scrubbing the data with AI and other things, we have more than 15 years of production already from nearby our existing facilities" in the US Gulf, opening the door for new tiebacks and leveraging current infrastructure. On the greenfield front, Beacon Offshore鈥檚 20k Shenandoah project is due on line next month, with production capacity of 120,000 barrels per day of oil. Looking ahead, Shell's Sparta project in 2028 and BP's Kaskida in 2029 will also tap 20k reservoirs. In August this year, LLOG Exploration and Repsol will start up their 60,000 b/d Salamanca project, tapping the Wilcox trend using a retrofitted floating production unit 鈥� another first for the US Gulf.

A change in political winds is also giving fresh momentum to US Gulf developers, just as doubts around shale's ability to continue growing gain traction. Tariffs and resulting supply chain disruptions are seen as manageable outside the US, as the domestic industry works to resolve outstanding issues. But US President Donald Trump's emphasis on growing US oil production has led to policy changes that are welcome news to offshore players. 鈥淲e have to find ways to get more out of the Gulf of Mexico ... in a big way,鈥� Oxy CEO Vicki Hollub said, noting that shale's notoriously sharp decline rates are "challenging all of us who work offshore ... to do more." A return to regular lease sales, easing certain regulations and whispers of reduced offshore royalties are all adding to the positive outlook for US deepwater operators. The National Ocean Industries Association trade group says continued activity and a "stable regulatory framework" will enable US Gulf output to grow to up to 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, a potential 25% increase from the 1.75 million b/d in February production reported by the US Energy Information Administration.

Outside the US, frontier exploration is back in vogue, with South America and West Africa headlining some of the most attractive new basins. Suriname is poised for an active exploration year, with five IOC wells scheduled. Interest is high for Brazil's Equatorial Margin and Pelotas Basin despite ongoing permitting challenges, as the country's prolific pre-salt approaches a likely production peak early next decade. Brazil is planning two bid rounds this year, and Trinidad and Tobago has launched its own deepwater auction, which is set to close in July. Offshore explorers are eyeing opportunities in Colombia, Argentina and Uruguay as well. Emerging African plays in Namibia and Sao Tome and Principe are also driving interest in frontier exploration.