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Is an Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0 Still Possible?

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  • Donald Trump has made clear his desire for talks with Iran over its nuclear program, even as he revives a "maximum pressure" campaign against it.

  • Iran doesn't want to negotiate "under pressure," but its options may be narrowing.

  • Trump-sanctioned Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites are perhaps just as likely as peace talks, but both sides are in a very different situation from Trump's first term.

US President Donald Trump's multiple expressions of willingness to launch talks with Tehran have prompted many to wonder whether a revived or new Iran nuclear deal might be in the offing. Between Trump's dramatic pivot toward Moscow and Tehran's strategic weakness following an intensive Israeli campaign against Iran and its regional proxies, the world is a different place from 2018 when Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by his predecessor. But former diplomats in both Washington and Tehran agree that the two sides remain far apart: Tehran isn't desperate enough to agree to the zero uranium enrichment demanded by the first Trump administration, and Trump would likely receive pushback from Congress, Israel and much of his administration if he budged on that demand.

Topics:
Nuclear Policy, Sanctions
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