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Opec-plus鈥� decision to speed up supply additions in May primarily reflects internal dynamics, particularly frustration with chronic overproducers Kazakhstan and Iraq. Despite the group鈥檚 stated rationale of increasing output on the back of a 鈥渉ealthier鈥� market outlook, we see oil fundamentals as increasingly bearish. The group will release an extra 411,000 b/d in May instead of the planned 135,000 b/d. It hopes a new, front-loaded schedule for 鈥渃ompensation cuts鈥� will mitigate the impact. Our soundings indicate that of eight members due to release extra volumes in May, only two would do so once compensation cuts are factored in.

Average demand growth is now just below 1 million b/d this year, according to select forecasters, down from 1.2 million b/d seen in March.